Dec 29, 2024 - Maui is ringing in 2025 in the grip of a severe rental car shortage. Online reservation systems are showing barely more than a handful of rental cars available island-wide. The only cars available are at off-airport locations. The cheapest options for a one-week rental are about $2,000/week for an economy car, $3,900/week for a mid-size car, $4,200 for an SUV, and $4,500 for a Jeep Wrangler. For pick-up at Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), rental companies are showing zero availability, i.e. no vehicles of any type at any price. Even alternative sources like the popular car sharing app Turo are showing no cars available.
We have received multiple reports from travelers to Maui that that long-standing car rental reservations for this period made weeks or even months in advance are being cancelled at the last minute by their providers; they suspect that their reserved vehicles are being re-booked to others at higher prices. There is no evidence to supports these suspicions, and there is no practical way to verify the allegations. It is more likely that the cancellations are due to overbooking and ineptness by rental car operators.
Last week, we reported that prices had reached all-time record high levels, and we explored some of the factors that gave rise to this situation in a blog post titled "Why Are Maui Car Rentals So Expensive For Christmas 2024." It was expected that the crunch would begin to ease off after Christmas, but clearly the situation has gotten only worse.
HOW MUCH DOES IT COST TO RENT A CAR THIS WEEK?
Every week we list the lowest advertised prices for a one-week car rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), for a selection of vehicle categories. This week there are no cars to list for rental from OGG, so instead we list prices for cars from off-airport locations. Jeep Wranglers and SUV's are topping the chart at an astronomical $4,500/week.
Category Price Change Company
Economy $1,971 3% Budget
Midsize $2,809 15% -
Jeep $4,569 80% -
Convertbl - - -
SUV $4,569 37% -
7 St SUV - -
Minivan - - -
This week, the lowest price for renting a car from OGG for one week is $1,971/week from Budget, up only 3% from last week. A midsize car is $2,809/week off-airport, up 15% from last week. A Jeep is $4,569/week off-airport, up 80% from last week, or nearly double. A SUV is also $4,569/week off-airport, up 37% from last week. Convertibles, 7-seat SUV's, and minivans are not available from any rental company at any price from any location.
Prices for every available vehicle type are at a new record all-time high even higher than last week's all-time high. Nearly all the rental companies that serve Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG) have run out of availability on every vehicle type - in other words they have nothing available.
WHERE DO MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICES GO FROM HERE?
The peak in rental car prices during this holiday period is not unexpected. Previously we conducted a five-year study of Maui car rental prices between 2013 and 2019. The lowest advertised price of a one-week rental averaged over this five-year period is illustrated in Figure 2. Over the five-year period or our study, it was normal to expect a sharp rise in the rental price in the weeks immediately before and after the Christmas holidays. The portion of the chart highlighted in red is the five-week period that comes right after the holidays. During this period, rates are expected to drop back down to levels that are closer to the median for the year.
The pattern of the holiday price increase is repeating again this year. This is illustrated in Figure 3. However, as we noted in last week's blog post, this year, the magnitude of the increase in Maui car rental prices is more than twice as much as expected based on the five years of price data that we have collected.
For the coming weeks, online reservation systems are showing advance reservation prices that drop from this week's extraordinary level back down to a more usual high season level. This reversion to the mean price is consistent with the price pattern from the five-year average.
As of today the lowest advertised prices for a one week rental made in advance, both from the airport rentals and off-airport, are as follows:
DATE OFF-OGG OGG
12/30/24 $1,921 $1,971
01/06/25 $444 $524
01/13/25 $463 $582
01/20/25 $463 $806
01/27/25 $254 $673
02/03/25 $401 $660
These advance reservation prices, marked as "Forecast," are illustrated in Figure 3. The coming five-week period for the forecast and the corresponding five-week period from one year ago are both highlighted in red.
HOW DO WE GET OUR MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICE DATA?
Prices for Maui car rentals vary from week to week, and the company offering the lowest price also changes from week to week. Furthermore, one company may be offering the lowest price in one vehicle category, for example mid-size cars, while a different company has a better price on another category, for example mini-vans.
Beginning in July 2024, we've tracked the prices on seven vehicle categories - compact, mid-size, Jeep, convertible, SUV, 7-seat SUV, and minivan - from 10 different companies at Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG): Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Hertz, National, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. Each week, for every vehicle type, we noted which company offered the lowest price. Our weekly price-tracking for the lowest price economy car category goes back to July 2023 - more than one year. These are the data for the charts we post every week.
Previously we conducted a five-year price-tracking study for the lowest price economy car category beginning in February 2013 and continuing to February 2018. A sample of these results is in Figure 3, that shows the five-year average of the price over a one-year duration. For details of this massive price-tracking undertaking, and the most important findings on how and when to rent a car, see our blog post of July 14, 2024 titled "When is the best time to rent a car in Maui?"
HOW TO CHECK RATES AND AVAILABILITY FOR MAUI CAR RENTAL
Either click through to to our Cars & Rates section, or check our booking site at rentals.mauicarrental.biz. This site gives you access to all vehicles from eight different companies - Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty - at all their Maui locations, that include the Airport rentacar center, Kahului town locations nearby the airport, and resort locations in Kihei/Wailea, and Ka'anapali. With so many options to choose from, you are assured to find the rental car that matches your preferences and your budget for your Maui trip - and there is never a cancellation penalty if you have to change plans.
Price Data Sources: rentalcars.com, rentals.mauicarrental.biz
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