Dec 15, 2024 - Maui car rental prices are on the rise and headed to an anticipated Christmas peak.
Below are the lowest advertised prices for a one-week car rental beginning Monday December 16 from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), for a selection of vehicle categories, with the change from the previous week, and the company offering the best price. These numbers are illustrated in Figure 1.
Category Price Change Company
Economy $733 193% SiXT
Midsize $748 162% SiXT
Jeep $1,162 172% Thrifty
Convertbl $1,035 114% Avis
SUV $805 156% Budget
7 St SUV $807 100% Avis
Minivan $1,107 145% Budget
Last week prices were at low season levels. This week the price of a one-week rental for most vehicle categories has more than doubled in price, with economy cars and Jeeps nearly triple what they were last week (see Figure 1). Prices for every category except Jeeps are at a new high for 2024.
This week, the lowest price for renting an economy car from OGG for one week is $733/week from SiXT, up 193% from last week. A midsize car is $748/week also from SiXT, up 162% from last week. A Jeep is $1,162/week from Thrifty, up 172% from last week. A convertible is $1,035/week from Avis, up 114% from last week. A SUV is $805/week from Budget, up 156%. A minivan is $1,107 also from Budget, up 145%.
HOW DO PRICES COMPARE WITH LAST YEAR?
This week the cheapest price for a one week car rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG) beginning on Monday 12/16/24 is $733/week, up $483 or 193% from last week. For a rental from nearby off-airport locations served by shuttle, the cheapest price is $587/week, up $393/week or 202% from last week.
Compared to one year ago, for the week of 12/18/23, when prices were still depressed because of the August 2023 Lahaina wildfire disaster, today's price for an airport rental is $537/week or 274% (nearly 4x) higher than last year, and the price for an off-airport rental is only $421/week, 254% more than last year (see Figure 2).
This huge increase over last year's price indicates two things: 1. Visitor numbers are beginning to recover from last year's Lahaina wildfires, and 2. Rental companies have underestimated their fleet requirements for this year, leading to shortage conditions in periods of peak demand. This is confirmed by the earlier shortage that took place over the Thanksgiving holiday.
MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS 2024
Prices are expected to rise even more for the Christmas week. This prediction is based on five years of weekly price data collected between 2013 and 2018. The historical data show that in December of every year, a brief reprieve from the Thanksgiving Holiday high prices is followed by a sharp increase in prices beginning about one week or 10 days before Christmas and peaking the week after Christmas. Given the rise in prices this week, we do expect this price pattern to hold again in December 2024, with prices going even higher - the question is how high will they go this year.
For the coming weeks, online reservation systems are showing advance reservation prices that rise even higher next week from this week's level, then dropping back down in the weeks that follow. As of today the lowest advertised prices for a one week rental, both from the airport rentals and off-airport, are as follows:
DATE OGG OFF-OGG
12/16/24 $733 $587
12/23/24 $949 $1,248
12/30/24 $784 $719
01/06/25 $576 $357
01/13/25 $546 $395
01/20/25 $581 $249
These advance reservation prices, marked as "Forecast," are illustrated in Figure 2, with a comparison to the same period last year.
IS THERE STILL A CHANCE OF A LAST MINUTE DROP IN PRICE FOR CHRISTMAS?
Our historical data shows that usually, more than 90% of the time, the last-minute price is the lowest available price for the rental, lower than a price booked in advance. See our research on When is The Best Time to Book a Car in Maui. However for the peak periods that correspond to the Christmas rush and the mid-February rush, prices do not go down at the last minute - in fact they continue to rise week by week in advance of the peak.
This perennial seasonal pattern is confirmed by the change in the advance reservation price for this year's Christmas week.
Last week, the price of a one-week car rental from the Kahului Airport (OGG) was expected to peak at over $800/week for the week of 12/23. This week the advance price for rentals beginning 12/23 has gone up to $949, up nearly 20% from last week's two-week advance price for rentals from OGG. The advance price for an off-airport rental beginning next week has gone from $650/week two weeks in advance to an extraordinary $1248/week one week in advance, indicating that availability may have already run out for off-airport rentals.
Anyone waiting for a last minute drop had better make their reservation now or expect to pay even more later, or, worse, be left high and dry without a rental car.
DOES IT COST LESS TO RENT OFF-AIRPORT?
Normally, off-airport prices are lower than airport prices due to a number of factors that we have covered in a previous blog post, titled "Is It Cheaper to Rent a Car at the Airport in Maui? Updated for 2024.." This week, the airport price is higher than off-airport for nearly all vehicle categories except Jeeps and economy cars (See Figure 5).
This week's reversal of the expected price pattern is likely because off-airport locations, that are smaller than airport locations and have a smaller inventory of cars, are already beginning to run low on availability in advance of the holiday.
Anyone hoping to save money by renting off-airport may be disappointed in the coming weeks of peak rental demand.
These prices are from our survey taken on 12/15/24, for a one-week rental from Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG), beginning on Monday, 12/16/24, for seven vehicle categories, Economy Car, Midsize Car, Convertible, Jeep, SUV, 7-passenger SUV, and Minivan. The rental companies covered in the survey are Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Fox, Hertz, National, NU, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. For more info on the companies we cover, see our blog post on customer satisfaction ratings for these Maui car rental companies.
As we've noted in previous blog posts, the price for an off-airport rental is usually lower than an airport rental, due to two factors:
Higher mandatory taxes and fees that are added to the cost of an airport rental, and
A discretionary "convenience premium" that rental companies charge at the airport. For details, see for example Is It Cheaper to Rent a Car at the Airport in Maui? Updated for 2024.
Exceptions do occur from time to time and we do report them when they do. b
HOW DO WE GET OUR MAUI CAR RENTAL PRICE DATA?
Prices for Maui car rentals vary from week to week, and the company offering the lowest price also changes from week to week. Furthermore, one company may be offering the lowest price in one vehicle category, for example mid-size cars, while a different company has a better price on another category, for example mini-vans.
Beginning in July 2024, we've tracked the prices on seven vehicle categories - compact, mid-size, Jeep, convertible, SUV, 7-seat SUV, and minivan - from 10 different companies at Maui's Kahului Airport (OGG): Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Hertz, National, Payless, SiXT, and Thrifty. Each week, for every vehicle type, we noted which company offered the lowest price. Our weekly price-tracking for the lowest price economy car category goes back to July 2023 - more than one year. These are the data for the charts we post every week.
Previously we conducted a five-year price-tracking study for the lowest price economy car category beginning in February 2013 and continuing to February 2018. A sample of these results is in Figure 2, that shows the five-year average of the price over a one-year duration. For details of this massive price-tracking undertaking, and the most important findings on how and when to rent a car, see our blog post of July 14, 2024 titled "When is the best time to rent a car in Maui?"
HOW TO CHECK RATES AND AVAILABILITY FOR MAUI CAR RENTAL
Either click through to to our Cars & Rates section, or check our booking site at rentals.mauicarrental.biz. This site gives you access to all vehicles from eight different companies - Ace, Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Payless, and Thrifty - at all their Maui locations, that include the Airport rentacar center, Kahului town locations nearby the airport, and resort locations in Kihei/Wailea, and Ka'anapali. With so many options to choose from, you are assured to find the rental car that matches your preferences and your budget for your Maui trip - and there is never a cancellation penalty if you have to change plans.
Price Data Sources: rentalcars.com, rentals.mauicarrental.biz
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